Russia Vs Ukraine Conflict, Inflation Begins to Shadow, What Is the Impact for Economic Recovery of the Republic of Indonesia? – TribunNews.com
TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – A number of economic observers are optimistic on Indonesias economic recovery after the crisis caused by the pandemic Covid-19, despite the inflationary pressure due to the geopolitical crisis the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the momentum of Ramadan and Eid holidays believed to encourage the economy to be more active at the lower level.
This was conveyed by economists from the Center for Economics and Business Sharia (PEBS) University of Indonesia (UI) Banjaran Surya Indrastomo and economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Rusli Abdullah in a discussion organized by IGICO Advisory, with the theme Skyrocketing Inflation, The Real Threat of Recovery Economy? on Wednesday afternoon (13/4/2022).
In his presentation, Banjaran said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering increased disruption of global supply chains.
INCREASE THE PRICE OF FOOD TO ENERGY
No doubt this has led to an increase in the prices of several important commodities world. Coal price hits all-time high reached US$440 per metric ton in early March. Oil price crude oil reached US$127.98 per barrel last Tuesday (8/3), and became the highest since JULY 2008. Likewise with natural gas reached US$5.64/mmbtu.
This of course drives global inflation. Banjaran shows data as of last March, inflation in the United States (US) reached 8.5% highest since 1982. In Europe at around 7.5% the highest throughout historically, in the UK 7% the highest since April 1982. In India 7% highest since November 2020. In South Korea 4.1% highest since December 2011, in Brazil 11.3% the highest since November 2003.
PERCENT, POOR COMMUNITY WILL SURVEY
Meanwhile, in Indonesia it was 2.6% the highest since April 2020. The full range also serves as the Chief Economist of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BSI). also said that inflation in Indonesia is based on volatile prices, which recorded the highest growth in line with rising prices several food commodities ahead of Ramadan such as chili, cooking oil, and eggs.
Despite being under pressure due to skyrocketing global inflation, Banjaran assesses that he is still optimistic about the economic recovery in Tanah Water. Indonesias inflation rate is still considered reasonable and not forever bad. Taking advantage of the momentum of Ramadan, low inflation going up makes more money in the community signifies increasing purchasing power and of course encouraging the economy to be more active in lower level.
I think we have to stay optimistic. Its a fear of the market This recovery is not running smoothly. In the recovery process an accommodative policy is needed. Pro to investment, pro to borrowing especially. Providing stimulus with interest rates low is relative so that the cost of borrowing can be rotated in economy wheel. When the cost of borrowing is low, it means stretching the demand for loans has increased. In that recovery state needed. So the real sector and the financial sector are equally gassy, he said.
Banjarans optimism also refers to several things. Like interest rates Bank Indonesias reference, which since February 2021-March 2022 remains at 3.5%. The exchange rate also weakened slightly on a monthly basis in March 2022 from IDR 14,365 per US dollar to IDR 14,368.
IN FRONT OF EYES
In addition, the manufacturing index in March 2022 increased to 51.3 from 51.2 in the previous month. The retail sales index became 203.97 in March 2022 from 200.03 in the previous month. Index Consumer confidence is still at the optimistic level, namely in position 111.
